Perception

["Mahoney, John" <jmahoney@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Perception is reality, in the sale of autos.  Perception can take up to ten
years to change.  The question is, can American motors survive that long
without, like Chrysler in the '80s or American Motors in the '60s, some sort
of "outside" help.  Uncle Sam guaranteed loans to Lido; USPS bought
Ambassadors: can GM and Ford avoid a repeat performance of Mopar and AMC?

GM promotes 61 [post-Olds] models; Ford offers 49, Toyota sells but 31.  GM
pays $1310 in employee benefits on every vehicle it actually sells; Ford
pays just $734, Toyota pays $194 (and Honda pays an amazing $107.)

The UAW is unhappy to work for GM, Ford and Chrysler; Toyota and Honda labor
is happy to work in the US.  GM and Ford have lost market share for decades
(Chrysler, thanks to the popularity of gangsta style cars and mean machine
trucks has just gained some domestic share --- all of one percent); Toyota
has increased share GLOBALLY at an annual rate of almost ten percent.
(Nissan has grown by almost that much over recent years and Honda has
averaged about five percent,)

GM's market capitalization is about $15B now; Toyota's is almost $122B 

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/symbols.asp?exchange=N&start=T&sort=cap&Type=0

(having increased by one billion in the month of April alone); from GM's
number, subtract over $300B in outstanding debt; from Toyota's take less
than $100B.  But add the Toyota holdings in Aisin and Denso, from Yamaha
motorcycles and musical instruments to Toyoda homes.  

http://www.hunet.com/news_eng/images/news_14_02o.jpg

You can clean with their dishwasher and dream on their pillow, as well.

Excuse me, is that your Toyota cell phone?
      
http://www.toyoda-gosei.com/products/industry/index2.html

GM and Ford are losing money so fast that government aid may be required to
keep plants open and jobs from vanishing, while Toyota has over $35B in cash
and it stands as one of the most efficient auto producers in America.
Toyota is happy to erect its second TX plant for that most American (Texan?)
of vehicles: full-size all-American trucks.  American politicians are happy
to offer cash incentives to Toyota and American people are happy to
assemble, sell and service the vehicles that Toyota develops, because Toyota
gives Americans the vehicles they want to buy* and the jobs to pay for them.
Toyota, not GM, has the buttons we want to push now.  Import, not domestic
nameplates are desired.  Rather sad.

I don't see takeovers ahead, neither Chrysler-AMC buyouts, nor "equal"
opportunity events like Mercedes-Mopar.  Rather, I see mergers of need and
of convenience, with futures like both Nissan-Renault and AMC-Jeep.  One
company needs technological advancement and manufacturing quality; one needs
sales outlets and production capacity.  Each needs the other to survive and
to succeed.  Bigger is still better; DaimlerChrysler is still considered a
"small" auto company; those which can't build every size and price vehicle
only put off until tomorrow their marriage date.

American can pull up its socks --- which Toyoda makes (in America) also

http://www.toyota-boshoku.co.jp/en/about/dc/detail1.html

 --- and step up to the challenge, but it'll be infinitely harder than
Gremlin vs. Beetle days.  The rest of the world became educated while
America played games (including that lamest game of all: politics); the
world became adept at accomplishment while America lived out/on past dreams.
American-make cars may really be better today than perception sees, but it's
hard to name five American models offered by [each] GM, Ford and Chrysler
that Americans really aspire to own and love dearly.

In 1968, AMC alone, offered multiple "aspirational" models (Rogue to Rebel;
Javelin to AMX, and three bodies for Ambassadorial sorts); in 2005,
Chevrolet can't discount SSR enough to empty its leftover lots.  One of the
best horses in GM's stable (a genuine Muscle Car by most standards) can
barely discount riders into its saddle (read a quote)       

"...this is what I actually paid yesterday [January 4, 2005] for a NEW
limited edition [~600 built] Pulse Red [darkish metallic] 2004 M6 GTO. 
 
Sticker: $33,485 (Invoice - holdback is roughly $31,000) 
Negotiated Price: $29,000 
2 Dealer Certs: -$1000 
GMAC rebate: -$5500 
Total before GM card incentive: $22,500 
GM Card roundup: -$5200 
Grand Total after all incentives/rebates: $17,300 +TTL 
TTL in PA was: 6% sales tax: $1038, Papers were $155 

Out the door price: $18,493"

(Or you can try to find a 30k-mile 'pre-enjoyed' Prius for ~$18,500...)

let alone many raring to jump (at or above MRSP) on a new Mustang.  So if
perception is reality and performance plus styling still sell, what should
it take to solve the problems?  Knowing auto history might help.  Knowing
what American motors could do may be a roadmap to more success.

Over forty years ago, as American Motors entered its most creative age, two
cars came to life that show American motors at their best.  One, I briefly
noted here a few weeks before a Pope's death; one I didn't have time to note
here yesterday.  Both are worth noting now, nonetheless.

Early in March, 1961, Sherwood Egbert called Raymond Loewy and asked him to
leave warm Palm Springs (where he swam in what was both an indoor and an
outdoor pool) for cold South Bend to discuss a new car.  On March 6, Loewy
was hired and he took a full-size [Lark convertible] chassis print back to
California.  On March 9, he began to draw.  On March 19, a team of three
designers joined him and they moved forward.  On March 26, he flew back to
Indiana with perspective renderings and a one-quarter clay.  On April 2,
Egbert flew [his own plane] to the Springs, stayed for only one hour and
returned to South Bend.  On April 4, Lowey flew east also, to supervise
construction of a full-size [clay] mockup.  There were no wind tunnel tests,
no consumer clinics, no market research.  He closed his eyes and "felt" the
body with his hands.  Forty-four years ago, on April 27, 1961, the
Studebaker board gave its approval.  To what could arguably be called the
most exceptional American production car design since before World War II.
It looked like nothing else in 1963; like nothing else in 2005.  Americans
developed the Avanti in seven weeks.

On September 22, 1964, a call came from the Lincoln-Mercury Division of
Ford: create a one-off custom car for Pope Paul VI to ride in New York.  It
was evening already.  The Pope arrived on October 2nd.  From design
(removable transparent roof, security steps and handles, elevator seat,
interior floodlighting and public address system) to completion (hand-sewn
upholstery, multi-coat lacquer and hand-buffed bright-metal trim), it took
only eight days.  After test-drives, checks and re-checks, the Lincoln
Continental was trucked off on September 30.  On October 2, it was waiting
at the Pope's door.  Americans did things back then.  Maybe Americans can do
things again.      

PS - Nobody noticed that I put a hyphen in Aston Martin?  Nobody noted that
I spelled here "hear" too?  Nobody took my dare to burst an AMC bubble?

Oh well.  The official AMC [styling and marketing] word was "bubble" --- as
"bubble fenders" were what the so-called 'humpster' Javelin and AMX had.

And nobody noted the Detnews/Gohsn rewrite of AMC history?

"In 1987, Renault sold American Motors cheaply to Chrysler - which used the
company to develop the hugely successful Jeep Cherokee, creating the new
category of sport-utility vehicle."

Develop?  Cherokee?  Creating?  New?


Or maybe that's good enough for AMC.