Re: GM/Hybrids/Hydrogen

[farna@xxxxxxx]

This is what GM has said for the last 2-3 years at least -- they were going to skip the electric and hybrid drives due to limited practicality, and go straight to hydrogen fuel cells. This makes a little sense -- people aren't exactly flocking ot hybrids. They're impractical for the vast majority of drivers. It would make a perfect second car, but the cost to "buy into" the technology is still to high to qualify it as a "second vehicle" for most people. You know, what people used to buy Rambler Americans for from 58-69 -- that's the wife and/or kids car, the Caddy/Olds/Lincoln/Mercury/whatever -- maybe even an Ambassador(?) -- was the primary family car. That's Hyundai territory now, or more likely a good 3-4 year old used Toyota/etc. (at best) for most. 

It makes sense not to waste R&D money on a stop gap. Remember the Vega and Pinto? After they were in production, they were built until the costs were fully amortized. That was what, 10+ years of production? It's hard for the bean counters to put something away that's paid for, so the Monza kept on for a few more years. But there will be some lean years during that gap if they don't do something to show the public they are on the power curve -- hence the EV-1. Maybe they should have kept them out there with some minor improvements? At least something would be running around. Converting the big vehicles to hybrid doesn't net much. A Malibu converted might, but one of their smaller cars would be better. Some cost involved, but the public confidence it would inspire would be priceless. 

As you pointed out -- they are betting on someone else developing infrastructure by the time they are fully ready for production. That's the only real loop hole in their strategy, other than the public confidence, but it's a big one! There has to be some partnering with oil companies (the most likely distributors of hydrogen) and other industry contacts to get that infrastructure in place -- maybe even the government. That's the only way Brazil got turned on to alcohol fuel -- government investment. A very good case of government working for the greater good of the country! 


On February 15, 2006 andrew hay wrote:

> also from the wired article --
> GM thinks it has a better idea. In the back of the teardown building,
> alongside the dissected Prius and Malibu, lie the parts of a GM
> demonstration vehicle powered by hydrogen fuel cells. Although the
> vehicle has more total parts than the Prius, almost none of them move,
> eliminating many of the finely machined gears and engine components of
> the traditional auto. The tables bearing the drive trains of the Prius
> and Malibu are laden with parts; those for the fuel cell car are
> nearly empty. The three teardowns tell the story of GM's plans: Go
> directly from gasoline to fuel cells with a mere nod to hybrid tech.
> At the Tokyo auto show in October, GM unveiled its fuel cell-powered
> Sequel. Larry Burns, GM's vice president for R&D and planning,
> announced that the company would be able to "design and validate a
> competitive fuel cell propulsion system by 2010."
> 
> there's just one hitch: no infrastructure to obtain and distribute
> hydrogen to these fuel-cell cars.  [you can't just use the national
> natural-gas pipelines for two reasons - 1, h2 is much tinier than ch4
> and can whizz through cracks natural gas doesn't even see, and 2, a
> phenomenon called hydrogen embrittlement, which affects steel exposed
> to h2]  this sounds like another excellent way for gm to shelve the
> pesky question of changing the way they do things for another long
> stretch of time.  notice he didn't say 'introduce a fuel cell car to
> compete with the likes of toyota'...
> 
> i predict they'll develop fuel cell tech, then shelve it, just like
> they developed and shelved hybrid tech and electric tech before that.
> remember the ev1, anybody?
> 
> in their defense, every auto maker must have a staggering investment
> in drivetrain manufacture, and to write that off as completely
> obsolete must be well-nigh unthinkable, even long past the time they
> really should be thinking about it.
> ________________________________________________________________________
> Andrew Hay                                  the genius nature
> internet rambler                            is to see what all have seen
> adh@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx                       and think what none thought


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