Re: Toyota want to sell 100% hybrids...

[farna@xxxxxxx]

I read a not about that somewhere. Basically, nothings been on the road long enough for batteries to be an issues yet. Toyota estimates five years before replacement is necessary for the average driver. Then we'll hear people scream! Of course performance, especially (only?) range will be effected before the estimated service life some... or are the batteries similar to LiON -- produce almost full power right up until they go nearly flat? I guess we'll find out in 3-4 years. I think the manufacturers are hoping that sales will pick up to the point that battery replacement costs are more acceptable due to demand. I'm thinking you can buy a new Prius II or whatever in 4-5 years at a more reasonable price than now, and most will elect to do that rather than spend much on a new batteries. Should be an interesting used hybrid market, but you may not save much after buying new batteries. 

Of course in the Asian market, where many short and few long trips are the norm, an all hybrid fleet should make perfectly good sense. Even in Europe few people travel across the continent the way Americans do. China and Russia are the same way. If you think about it, even the average American spends 75% of their life in one region. There are exceptions like myself (military) and others with jobs that take them across the country over the years -- they like to drive home occasionally. But even so, I'm still in the general area where I live most of the time -- 75% might be a bit low for the average American... 85-90% might be more like it. In Europe and Asia it's cheaper to use the train for really long trips. We no longer have that option in most places. 

I can drive and get somewhere faster and more conveniently than taking a train! Thought about taking a train just for kicks from New Orleans to my brother-in-laws near LA. It would have taken three days, and cost as much as flying. And that would have been coach all the way, would have to pay for meals to -- no sleeping car! I think it would have been a two day drive (more direct route). With rising fuel costs flying costs will rise quicker than train, so that might change. 

On September 14, 2005 Tom Jennings wrote:

> Why do I never hear about battery issues?
> 
> 
> 
> from NY Times:
> 
> Toyota Says It Plans Eventually to Offer an All-Hybrid Fleet
> 
> By BLOOMBERG NEWS
> Published: September 14, 2005
> 
> FRANKFURT, Sept. 13 (Bloomberg News) - The Toyota Motor
> Corporation said this week that all its vehicles would eventually
> be run by hybrid gasoline-electric motors, as record fuel prices
> curb demand for conventional automobiles.
> 
> "In the future, the cars you see from Toyota will be 100 percent
> hybrid," Kazuo Okamoto, executive vice president, told reporters
> in Frankfurt Monday, without giving a specific timetable.
> 
> Toyota, Japan's biggest carmaker and second to General Motors
> worldwide, is aiming to make as many as 400,000 gasoline-electric
> vehicles in 2006, including Prius cars, Camry sedans, Highlander
> sport utility vehicles and Coaster buses, Katsuaki Watanabe,
> president of Toyota, said at an investor conference in New York
> Monday. That would be 60 percent more than 2005's objective, he
> added.
> 
> ...


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